Towards the end of the year, many new energy vehicle manufacturers are waiting for the implementation of policy boots.

Recently, the reporter of the surging news (www.thepaper.cn) learned from many new energy vehicle and power battery manufacturers that the previously rumored news that the subsidy for new energy vehicles has declined and increased may be true, the document has been written, and the news will be announced soon. In the future, high energy density batteries and long endurance mileage will become key incentive standards, and local financial subsidies may be cancelled.

A source who did not want to be named told the surging journalists that he learned from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that from 2018, new energy vehicles with a range of less than 150 kilometers will no longer enjoy subsidies; In addition, local subsidies for new energy vehicles will be suspended.

In the 2017 national subsidy standard, a subsidy of 20000 yuan will be given to new energy vehicles with a range of 100 to 150 kilometers; In addition, the local government can grant no more than 50% of the local financial subsidies according to the standard of national financial subsidies.

As for the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles, there have been rumors in many versions. The surging journalists learned from many sources that the policy tendency of subsidizing vehicles with high energy density and long mileage and reducing subsidies for vehicles with low energy density and short mileage is gradually being implemented.

In addition, the power battery manufacturer revealed to the surging news reporter that in the new version of the financial subsidy scheme, the per kilowatt hour subsidy for new energy buses will be reduced from 1800 yuan/kilowatt hour to 1100 yuan/kilowatt hour, the upper limit of the national subsidy for non fast charging single cars will be adjusted to no more than 180000 yuan, and the national subsidy+local subsidy line will be reduced to no more than 270000 yuan, and the subsidy limit for the latter two will be reduced by 40%.

However, these claims have not yet received a public response from the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

The retreat came ahead of time, and the car company said that "the production rhythm was disrupted"

The decline of financial subsidies for new energy vehicles is not unexpected.

In the detailed rules on subsidies for new energy vehicles released at the end of 2016, it was clearly stated that the content of subsidy publicity will be maintained for two years, and in 2019, it will be 20% lower than that in 2017.

"The policy has an itch of three years, and it will be almost as long as it can be implemented in three years." In November this year, Liu Bin, an expert from China Automotive Technology Research Center, publicly expounded the adjustment logic of the subsidy policy: the government's new energy automobile industry support policy has changed from "inclusive" to "selective", from a simple reward mechanism to a combination of rewards and punishments.

China Automotive Technology Research Center is subordinate to the State owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. Its business includes providing standardization and technical regulation services for the government, and getting involved in policy drafting and preliminary research.

Many car enterprises did not expect that the recession would come so quickly.

A senior executive of a car company told the surging news reporter that the original plan was to adjust once every two years to once every year (the 2017 new energy car subsidy rules were born at the end of 2016, and have not been in existence for more than a year), "This has a great impact on the cost of enterprises. New cars just listed have no subsidies after, which may lead to immediate delisting."

"The decline of subsidies will affect more than 70% of the sales of cars. Such a large number of cars are just Chinese (new energy vehicles), which will suddenly fall back to zero, disrupting all the production rhythm of enterprises. It is a very disastrous change that many production plans should be completely reversed and restarted. (About the national subsidy policy for new energy vehicles) Every three years, there is a gap, and there is no continuity of the policy, which makes enterprises uncomfortable." In December this year, Yin Chengliang, director of the Intelligent Connected Electric Vehicle Innovation Center of Shanghai Jiaotong University, expressed the above views at an open forum.

Under the dynamic adjustment of policies and changing environment, Liu Bin believes that in terms of strategy, auto enterprises need to think clearly, and choose to follow the policy or choose according to their own development. The enterprise follows the policy to design vehicle models. On the one hand, it can enjoy the policy dividend, on the other hand, it will also have restrictions on technological innovation, research and development, and industrial types.

Small electric vehicles and buses are affected deeply, or will be sold to the market with short-term fluctuations

From the way of subsidy adjustment, the energy density was low before, and small new energy passenger vehicles and new energy buses in the field of commuting and shared travel in the city were greatly affected.

From the data of the National Passenger Car Joint Conference, the consumer market of micro electric vehicles in 2017 was in great demand. From January to November this year, the sales volume of A00 class electric passenger vehicles reached 244400, a year-on-year increase of 162%, accounting for 53.35% of the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles.

Sun Xiaodong, general manager of Ningbo Liwei Energy Storage System Co., Ltd., believes that with the decrease of subsidy quota, until the total cancellation in 2020, the market structure of electric vehicles may undergo major adjustment: with the decline of subsidy quota, the sales of domestic A-class cars will fall precipitously.

Electric buses face the dilemma of nude swimming after the tide of subsidies subsides.

From the cumulative sales data from January to October this year, Yutong Bus ranked first, with a cumulative sales volume of 11000 vehicles; BYD ranks second with 8445 passenger cars. However, according to the production data of the certificate issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in the first ten months of this year, there was no car enterprise with a monthly output of more than 10000 cars, and the output in the previous months hovered around hundreds of cars.

At the 8th Global New Energy Automobile Conference held on December 15, Cui Zhiqiang, CEO of Electric Network, commented that it is not too much for the industry to squat or even slow down.

Cui Zhiqiang analyzed that despite the policy push, the comprehensive cost of electric buses is still high in combination with procurement and operation, which may be the internal reason why the bus industry is difficult to realize rapid and large-scale electrification. At present, the new energy buses with various technical configurations are still in the state of "being tested" in China. As far as urban public transport is concerned, there is no product of any kind that can be locked into good technical and economic benefits, which can be widely promoted and applied.

Recently, surging journalists visited many new energy vehicle sales outlets in Beijing, and many salespeople have taken the subsidy downgrade as a marketing reason to encourage consumers to pick up their cars as soon as possible, and said that once the subsidy downgrade adjustment of new energy vehicles, it is likely to lead to no cars available for sale early next year.

At the beginning of 2017, due to the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles, enterprises needed to adjust their business policies, which led to a decline in the sales of new energy vehicles, and many dealers stopped collecting vehicles for a time.

Who will bear the cost after the subsidy declines?

With the decline of subsidies, the competition among new energy vehicle manufacturers is becoming increasingly fierce.

Li Yixiu, general manager of BAIC New Energy Automobile Marketing Co., Ltd., said, "If new energy vehicles are compared to children, the country will not spoil them, but will choose to quickly temper and improve them and speed up their cultivation." At present, "policy driven+ecological driven" is the main, supplemented by market driven, and will usher in the transformation of the window period at the end of 2019 - to a new stage of product driven and market driven, emphasizing product personalization Brand building.

At the same time, a large number of new energy vehicle products and price concessions are accelerating, and car enterprises may become popular.

According to incomplete statistics, in 2017, 45 new models of new energy vehicles, including new and upgraded models, were launched, and the layout of each manufacturer was fast; On the other hand, the terminal promotion of new energy vehicles is increasing, and the preferential quota for some models has exceeded 20000 yuan.

After the decline of subsidies, who will bear the cost will become a new challenge.

In this regard, Lu Huaping, the marketing minister of Chery New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., pointed out that once the subsidy was downgraded, the cost of a single car would increase by 17000 to 25000 yuan. "If the manufacturer shared the cost, it would be a dead end; the cost would be borne by three parties, and for consumers, prices might rise next year; the business policies of dealers might be reduced; the cost of enterprises would be further reduced to increase efficiency."

Looking back on the decline of financial subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2017, not only vehicle manufacturers were affected.

A senior executive of the power battery enterprise told the surging news reporter that the withdrawal of the national subsidy this year had a direct impact on the collection efficiency of vehicle manufacturers. In addition, the strong demand for new energy vehicles and the soaring price of upstream rare metals had brought great pressure to the power battery industry.

Zhong Mengguang, vice president of Watma Battery, told the surging journalists that the power battery factory is facing huge cost pressure at present: before 2015, 50% of the cost of a pure electric vehicle came from the battery, which was too expensive, affecting the market promotion. Through technology upgrading and large-scale production, the battery cost has been reduced to 35% to 40%, which has prompted power battery manufacturers to continuously reduce costs and improve efficiency. In the future, the key to the competition among power battery enterprises will be to improve the process, scale production, improve the level of automation and cascade utilization.

Sun Xiaodong believes that in the future, the battery manufacturing cost of electric vehicles needs to be further reduced to achieve the balance between battery depreciation and the price difference between oil and electricity. At present, the power battery manufacturing cost has dropped to 1.7 yuan/Wh or even 1.4 yuan/Wh, and the material end has been very low. It is difficult to further reduce the direct cost. Therefore, cascade utilization will become an important use scenario, and the energy storage market and automobile power exchange technology will usher in new development opportunities.

Post subsidy era: subsidy policy package is on the way

While the financial subsidies are declining, the relevant ministries and commissions are using a package plan to standardize and promote the further development of new energy vehicles.

Liu Bin pointed out that in the past few years, the policy tools used by the government in the new energy industry have gradually increased, including financial and tax support, as well as policy tools such as exemption from purchase restrictions and travel restrictions; The number of ministries promoted at the national level has increased from 2-3 to 18.

Previously, Song Qiuling, Deputy Director of the Department of Economic Construction of the Ministry of Finance, also disclosed that the Ministry of Finance, together with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Energy Administration and other departments, is establishing a set of fiscal and tax policy system for subsidies for new energy vehicles. The policy system is constantly improving from single policy to policy combination.

According to surging journalists, for the "post subsidy era", several institutions have jointly studied countermeasures, including tax support policies, 2020 follow-up subsidy policy research, traffic differentiation policies, charging infrastructure support policies and double credit policies, business model research, etc.

In September of this year, the launch meeting of the project Research on New Energy Vehicle Support Policy System in the Post subsidy Era jointly held by China Automotive Technology Research Center, China Automotive Engineering Society and China Electric Vehicle Hundred Talents Association discussed how to achieve a smooth transition and sustainable development of the new energy vehicle industry after the subsidy withdrawal.